Prediction platform slammed for ‘dystopian’ bets following US and Iran conflict

Polymarket has come under fire for monetizing and allowing people to bet on the war in Iran and the launch of nuclear weapons.

Founded in 2020, the platform is a prediction market that allows users to gain or lose cash based on the outcome of real-world events.

Users will buy ‘yes’ or ‘no’ shares depending on their prediction on a specific event, for example, 'Will TikTok get banned in the US this year?', after funding their account with crypto, debit card, or bank transfer.

And this week, the site has accepted dystopian wagers on strikes, as well as bets on the removal of the Supreme Leader from power, who has since died.

Last week, America and Israel issued joint strikes against Iran, killing Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and the Middle East has been in turmoil ever since.

Polymarket is facing criticism for allowing users to monetise conflict (SOPA Images / Contributor / via Getty)

Iran responded by launching missiles and drones across the region, targeting US assets and allies, such as Israel, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Jordan, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

Now, as per Sky News, Israel has launched 'a broad wave' of fresh strikes in Iran, while Iran has launched strikes of its own towards Israel, according to the IDF.

And while all of this is going on, people have been making money on a platform called Polymarket, betting on the war - yes, this is real.

According to The Independent, a total of $529 million was staked on the timing of attacks, with big payouts being made to those who bet on Saturday (28 February) for the first strikes.

The publication reports that this includes one user who earned almost half a million dollars when the US struck Iran, betting just over an hour before the news broke.

US Congressman Mike Levin hit out on X: "Prediction markets cannot be a vehicle for profiting off advance knowledge of military action. We need answers, transparency, and oversight."

There is no evidence currently that the people making the trades had inside knowledge of the attacks on Iran.

On top of this, $150 million was bet on the date of Khamenei’s 'removal,' with users arguing whether his 'death is the same as removal'.

One particular screenshot that's circulating on social media shows a wager on when there will be a nuclear detonation.

The wagers have caused controversy online (Scott Olson / Staff / via Getty)

One X user wrote, "This is worse than any dystopia we could've imagined," while a second agreed: "That should be illegal."

And a third added, in disbelief: "We really built a world where people can financially bet on the apocalypse like it’s a sports game. Unreal."

"I don’t think any dystopian books or movies even thought of this one," quipped a fourth.

Tyla has contacted Polymarket for comment.

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